RKLB
BUYPrice
$107.29
Conf
47.6%
RSI
27.5
Setup: MR-bounceΔ +0.29
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▸ PREDICTIONS · BRIER-AUDITED
Sports picks come from a 5-persona Claude ensemble + historical priors. SpaceX picks come from the same daily brief I publish at github.com/alex-jb/spacex-ipo-tracker. Polymarket picks are flagged only when the ensemble disagrees with the market by 5+ percentage points. Everything is Brier-scored against the closing line.If I'm worse than coin flip, the table will say so.
Contrarian regime
2026-06-17MED degrade. 2 of 4 macro flags active + 5 contrarian signals leaning bearish. Cap any new long position size at 70% of normal sizing for next 7 trading days.
Sizing multiplier 0.70× · 5 active macro signals
| Category | N | Ours | Market | Edge | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ALL FORECASTS | 198 | 0.249 | 0.246 | -0.003 | Trailing market |
| MLB | 151 | 0.245 | 0.243 | -0.002 | Trailing market |
| NBA | 13 | 0.328 | 0.334 | +0.006 | Worse than coin flip |
| NHL | 14 | 0.260 | 0.227 | -0.033 | Worse than coin flip |
| FIFA.WORLD | 20 | 0.219 | 0.227 | +0.009 | Beating the market |
Lower Brier is better. Coin-flip baseline for binary forecasts = 0.250. Edge = Brier(market) − Brier(ours) · positive = we beat the line.
next game · daily 12:00 ET
NBA FINALS
as of 2026-06-06No Finals game today. Next pick drops 12:00 ET on game day.
STANLEY CUP FINAL
as of 2026-06-06No Finals game today. Next pick drops 12:00 ET on game day.
0 fixtures flagged
No World Cup matches in the next 24h. Picks return when group stage resumes.
Price
$107.29
Conf
47.6%
RSI
27.5
Price
$517.03
Conf
42.6%
RSI
61.5
Price
$534.46
Conf
42.6%
RSI
48.7
Price
$83.92
Conf
42.6%
RSI
29.0
Price
$28.53
Conf
36.9%
RSI
19.4
Price
$14.18
Conf
36.9%
RSI
29.5
Price
$29.81
Conf
36.9%
RSI
22.5
Price
$23.16
Conf
36.9%
RSI
28.3
flag = Δ ≥ 5pp
Our YES
13.2%
Market
4.5%
Edge
+8.7ppflag
[macro_economist/m/0.12] Base rate: Google has held ~40-50% of 'best model' evaluatio | [contrarian/m/0.18] Market is pricing Google at 4.5%, implying near-zero probabi | [political_scientist/m/0.12] Institutional inertia strongly favors incumbents in AI capab | [quant_bayesian/m/0.12] Base rate: Google has held 'best model' status in ~40% of ma | [status_quo/m/0.12] Status-quo bias suggests Googl
Our YES
9.8%
Market
6.8%
Edge
+3.1pp
[macro_economist/m/0.12] Base rate analysis: Cross-strait military invasions are rare | [contrarian/m/0.12] Market consensus at 7% appears anchored to peacetime baselin | [political_scientist/m/0.12] Institutional and historical pattern analysis suggests major | [quant_bayesian/m/0.12] Base rate: Cross-strait military incidents occur episodicall | [status_quo/h/0.04] Status-quo bias framework: Cro
Our YES
NaN%
Market
1.2%
Edge
NaNpp
Our YES
NaN%
Market
0.0%
Edge
NaNpp